Predicting the Inactives for the game against San Francisco

I'll post the entire roster here and underline and bold those I believe will be inactive.  The Packers can only activate 46 of the 53 on the roster.

Quarterback (2)
Aaron Rodgers
Seneca Wallace

Running Backs (4)
Lacy
Franklin
Kuhn
Starks

Wide Receivers (5)
Nelson
Cobb
Jones
Boykin
Ross

Tight Ends (4)
Finley
R. Taylor
Quarless
Bostick

Offensive Linemen (8)
Bahktiari
Sitton
Dietrich-Smith
Lang
Barclay
Newhouse
Van Roten
L. Taylor

Defensive Line (8)
D. Jones
Raji
Pickett
Jolly
Wilson
Daniels
Neal
Boyd

Outside Linebackers (4)
Mathews
Perry
Mulumba
Palmer

Inside Linebackers (5)
B. Jones
Hawk
Francois
Barrington
Lattimore

Cornerback (6)
Williams
Shields
Hayward
House
Hyde
Bush

Safety (4)
Burnett
McMillian
Jennings
Banjo

Specialists (3)
Crosby
Masthay
Goode

The Packers haven't played a questionable player in a long time and Burnett and Jones are both listed as questionable.  Both have hamstring injuries.  Expect Francois and McMillian to fill in for the two starters.  Hayward has already been listed as out since early in the week.  All three may be back next week.  As important as week 1 is, there are 16 games in the season and all three players will be needed this season.  I gave Mulumba the nod over Palmer because I believe he's more disruptive but special teams could factor into that decision.  Boyd is the odd man out on the defensive line, and Neal is a back up at outside linebacker as well as defensive line.  Bostick is not ready to contribute yet, and Franklin plays better special teams than Bostick does, so Franklin stays on the active list.  Lane Taylor will likely be inactive all 16 games barring injury.

Analyzing the Final 53

So the final cuts are in and at least for the moment the roster is set.  If history is a lesson, however, the roster is hardly set.  A lot of movement will continue throughout the regular season, so no one's job is exactly safe whether it be from injury, trade, or free agent signing to fill a hole.

Let's analyze each position and review how the camp battles went.

Quarterback (2)
Aaron Rodgers
BJ Coleman
Tolzien - Practice Squad (PS)

I had written earlier about the uphill climb Vince Young had to endure to make the final 53 and that turned out to be too much of a hill to climb.  The big surprise, of course, was the cutting of Graham Harrell in favor of BJ Coleman.  Many media-types are reporting that the Packers may not be done quite yet, but I believe they are set.  Signing Tolzien to the practice squad does a few things:  First, it gives them a guy that knows the 49ers checks and calls at the line of scrimmage.  This is important because it forces the 49ers to change them, which means less practice time on other things.  Second, it gives them a third arm to try out to see if he could develop into something further.  I was never sold on him at Wisconsin nor for the 49ers, but if he can provide some advice for Rodgers on the sideline (as Graham Harrell did quite well, and Coleman not so well), then he could be ok.  Obviously he won't be in uniform, given his practice squad designation however.

Running Backs (4)
Lacy
Franklin
Kuhn
Starks

With Harris on IR, it opened the door for the Packers to keep 4 instead of 5 running backs.  I always thought Starks would beat out Green, not so much because he was a better back but because he was a different back.  Green and Franklin were roughly the same guy, and if they kept Green over Starks, they'd have no large back if Lacy faltered or got hurt.  With Starks they have that.  At least one other team liked Green enough to claim him (the Jets) after he was cut.  Green just never regained the burst he showed his rookie year.  Some reported that Kuhn's spot was in jeopardy, but I never bought into that.  He is steady and does everything they ask.

Wide Receivers (5)
Nelson
Cobb
Jones
Boykin
Ross

I really thought the Packers would keep 6 here, especially with their depth at the position, injuries, and lack of depth at the tight end position.  Ross made it for special teams over receiving ability, especially with the lingering nature of Cobb's injury.  Walker and Johnson will likely be added to the practice squad by the end of the labor day weekend, so at least they have insurance.  It helped that both Nelson and Cobb were okay to go in the last preseason game, meaning the Packers felt they could go into this year with 5 at the position.

Tight Ends (4)
Finley
R. Taylor
Quarless
Bostick

I expected the Packers to keep Williams and thought it was going to come down to Quarless and Mulligan for the final spot.  I did not expect the Packers to keep more than 4 tight ends this year (one year they kept 6!).  Bostick showed enough to be the developing guy and if he can play some special teams, he can contribute in some fashion.  He's a disaster blocking however, but he's the only guy that can match Finley's athleticism at the position on the roster.  Taylor's spot was never in doubt given the team's emphasis on special teams.  Quarless needs to restart his career after the devastating leg injury ended his season over a year ago.  Stoneburner, a tight end out of Ohio State, was signed to the practice squad.  I think next year he makes the roster without a problem as the number 2 tight end (assuming Finley resigns).  He showed a little Mark Chmura in him.

Offensive Linemen (8)
Bahktiari
Sitton
Dietrich-Smith
Lang
Barclay
Newhouse
Van Roten
L. Taylor

I thought they'd keep 9 here, but Datko played his way out of a position.  Taylor and Lewis were both raw and the Packers kept Taylor due to his versatility of being able to play more than one spot.  Sure enough, another team claimed Lewis (Browns) and they weren't able to stash him away on the practice squad.  Sherrod and Trettor are on the PUP list, so around week 6 or so, we might see some movement at this position.

Defensive Line (8)
D. Jones
Raji
Pickett
Jolly
Wilson
Daniels
Neal
Boyd

Are they playing the 4-3 defense?  Seriously the Packers kept a LOT of defensive linemen and for good reason.  First, these bodies are hard to find.  Second, FIVE of them are free agents after this year.  Neal has been playing OLB in addition to DL, but I only expect to see that when the Packers play teams that play the spread or read option.  His job will be to hit the QB no matter what, which then makes the QB hand the ball off instead.  Jolly made the team flat out.  The guy that still doesn't fit at all is Daniels.  He has a 4-3 body for a 3-technique DT, but the Packers like him enough to try to make the square peg fit into the round hole.

Outside Linebackers (4)
Mathews
Perry
Mulumba
Palmer

With Neal playing a little bit of OLB as well, they have a little more depth than meets the eye, but still.  They jettisoned everyone in favor of the raw Mulumba and the guy in Palmer who really needs to be on a practice squad.  Moses had a bad camp, and it ultimately hurt him.

Inside Linebackers (5)
B. Jones
Hawk
Francois
Barrington
Lattimore

Barrington played his way onto the roster, which I predicted a couple of weeks ago.  Lattimore, who I had as a cut, managed to squeak onto the team through his special teams play.  Francois could be a starter in this league.  He's been really developing.

Cornerback (6)
Williams
Shields
Hayward
House
Hyde
Bush

No real surprises here.  It's the same six I predicted a couple of weeks ago.  Hopefully they can squeeze Nixon onto the practice squad.  Bush makes it for his toughness and special teams play.

Safety (4)
Burnett
McMillian
Jennings
Banjo

Exactly who I predicted would make the roster here.  Let's hope that Burnett's hamstring is fine and he doesn't miss any time because outside of him, these safeties are pretty raw.  Jennings appears to have won the battle for the starting spot opposite Burnett.  Banjo played his way onto the team the last couple of weeks, but he needs to continue to make strides in order to stay on the team long term.

Specialists (3)
Crosby
Masthay
Goode

Crosby won the kicking competition in the end and I would not expect to see the Packers cut him this year.  It's too expensive and after week one, his salary is guaranteed.  Masthay started slow and then really showed why they didn't bring in anyone to challenge him.  He ended up with a great preseason.  I particularly love how he hustles down on punts and is willing to stick his head in there for a tackle.  Goode's snaps graded at about an A-, so no trouble there.

Predicting the Final 53 (and practice squad implications)

Position-by-position analysis of who I think makes the roster after 2 preseason games.  If I put (PS) after their name, I believe they'll be a practice squad consideration.  I'll give a short analysis after each position.
Offense
Quarterback (2)
Rodgers
Harrell
Coleman (PS)

Graham Harrell appears to have held off the challenger Vince Young for now.  There's still a lot of time left for this battle to take place and all that can be certain at this position is that Rodgers is a lock.  Coleman is likely a practice squad consideration at this point, unless the Packers get wind of someone trying to give him a shot on an active 53, but that's doubtful.

Running Back/Full Back (5)
Lacy
Harris
Kuhn
Franklin
Starks

I almost thought 4 was enough here, especially given the lack of emphasis on the run, but I think in the end, the Packers will carry 5.  The final spot will be between Green and Starks.  Green and Franklin are basically the same player in my mind and Starks is the only other big back if Lacy goes down, so I give Starks the nod.  The competition is close though.  Pease has been terrible at blocking on both Special Teams (near block given up last week) and on offense (twice I saw defenders run past him).  If for some reason they only go with 4, then Pease will have done enough to warrant a look on the practice squad

Tight End (4)
Finley
Taylor
Mulligan
Williams
Stoneburner (PS)
Bostick (PS)

Quarless is still in the running but time is ticking on his availability and Mulligan can do what Quarless can do blocking-wise and on special teams.  He was nicked up though in the last game, so we'll see because I think availability will play a big role in who stays past Finley.  Bostick still can't block and needs more seasoning.  Stoneburner is an intriguing prospect and could make the practice squad as well.  DJ Williams is very inconsistent but has answered the bell more than anyone so far in preseason.  If they keep 5 here, then they either reduce one running back or one offensive linemen.

Offensive Line (9)
Bakhtiari
Sitton
EDS
Lang
Barclay
Newhouse
Van Roten
Datko
Taylor
Lewis (PS)

The Packers might keep 8 here if they believe that either or both Sherrod and Tretter will be ready by midseason to activate off of the PUP list.  That would allow them to carry an extra tight end for the short term as well and see how that turns out.  Bulaga is put on IR in this situation as well and will be back next year.

Wide Receiver (6)
Cobb
Nelson
J. Jones
Boykin
Ross
Walker
Dorsey (PS)
Johnson (PS)

The Packers may try to keep 7 here depending on availability of Cobb and Nelson.  Dorsey and Johnson might end up on the practice squad or IR depending on their injury status.  Ross makes it at this point because of Cobb's injury, so he takes the special teams duties.  With the multiple sets the Packers use, having 6 WRs on the roster is a necessity and 7 isn't out of the question.  Boykin is not a deep threat, but he is running better routes lately.  For the first time ever I saw him get a little separation on a route last week.  His speed will forever limit him.

Defense
Defensive Line (6)
D. Jones
Jolly
Pickett
Raji
Daniels
Boyd

CJ Wilson is the odd man out here (Neal is listed as an OLB).  Wilson has improved over the few years he's been here but not enough to give up on a guy that's flashed some upside in Boyd. The resurrection of Jolly's career hurts Wilson the most.  Both are essentially on 1-year contracts and Jolly has far more talent and desire than Wilson at this point.  Wilson will be signed by someone else though, he's not a bad player, he's just not good enough with the depth that they have.  Worthy remains on the PUP list and eventually hits IR in my opinion as well.  With Neal playing a hybrid position, I can't see them keeping more than 6 here.

Outside Line Backer (4)
Mathews
Perry
Neal
Moses
Mulumba (PS)
Palmer (PS)

If Mike Neal plays only defensive line this year, Mulumba probably makes the roster with what he's flashed so far.  He's raw but has a good motor and could be good on special teams with some seasoning.

Inside Line Backer (4)
B. Jones
Hawk
Francois
Barrington
Manning (PS)

Barrington has laid some pretty big hits so far and looks fluid out there.  Lattimore and Manning are still projects and Manning I believe could qualify for the practice squad (he was on the roster all 18 games last year though, so I could be wrong).  I think it will be wrong of the Packers to keep more than 4 here, but they might just do that at the expense of a safety.

Corner Back (6)
Williams
Shields
Hayward
Hyde
Bush
House
Nixon (PS)

House makes it by the skin of his teeth at this point, but with Williams and Hayward unavailable for all of camp, it shouldn't really surprise anyone.  The Packers need those guys back or else it will make for some very tough decisions at other positions to make more room here.

Safety (4)
Jennings
Burnett
McMillian
Banjo

Banjo only makes it if the Packers keep the stated number of any number of positions, otherwise he's simply a practice squad kind of guy.  Only the top three have played well enough to merit a roster spot at this point, especially when you factor in that Bush can play safety in a pinch and Hyde probably can as well.  Sean Richardson goes on PUP/IR as well here or has an injury settlement if the doctors refuse to clear him from his neck injury.

Kicker (1)
Crosby

Crosby has been coming on strong since the debacle in family night.  He has responded of late and if he continues, he will hold off the hard charging Tavechio.  Crosby's kickoffs are better, and it is very evident he has the stronger leg, which the Packers have always valued.  They 'might' go get a different kicker here but only if both falter.

Punter (1)
Masthay

He needs to pick it up a bit here.  I hope he's just working on things because he hasn't looked nearly as good so far as he did last year.  I'm not too worried yet, as Masthay has had some small slumps before.  I'd rather have him hit the slump now than in the regular season.

Long Snapper (1)
Goode

Consistent long snapper.

Preseason Game 1: Final thoughts and player analysis

The Packers were shutout in their first preseason game last night.  The score is largely irrelevant, as the team uses these games to see how players battle in their one-on-ones.

Where was the Packers pass rush?
This is an easy one.  The 3-4 defense is predicated on creating pressure, but the Packers had little pressure throughout the night.  Capers did dial up a few blitzes, but they rarely got home.  I wouldn't put much into this though.  3-4 pressure is designed to create mismatched one-on-one rushes (outside linebacker vs a running back) or to create "free" runners to the ball (much more risky as you typically have to disguise very well or create an overload which opens up other parts of the field).  The Packers were interested in seeing only one-on-one matchups in this game and they say plenty.  The linebackers are rarely going to beat tackles with running back support and that's what they saw most of the evening.

What was with the Packers coverage?
They did not cover well.  Davon House had perhaps his worst game I've seen from him.  He will need to clean that up if he wants to make the roster at this point.  He was reticent to make contact and could not run with players time and again.  Other corrections were things the Packers can clean up on film.  Micah Hyde gave up a fade touchdown.  He played inside leverage on the WR even though it appeared he had inside help.  Further, the receiver had lined up way too far inside to give inside leverage (allowing a clean outside release).  He needs to realize where the receiver lines up and make the adjustment to where his help is.  The receiver might have released inside then and still caught an easy slant but the key is to press the man (Hyde missed his jam) and let him go to your help inside.  Again, film study should reveal and clean that up.

How did the Packers O-line play?
I'll get more into this with individual players, but overall they were solid.  The line did a good job of getting to the second level.  There were some hiccups, for sure, but I thought against a very vanilla defense that the line gave the QB and RB a chance on nearly every play.

Individual Players (Grade per their playing time)
QB:
Aaron Rodgers (B+)
Played fast, efficient football.  Could have had a TD pass to Finley but was broken up (not a drop as the defender had his hands on the ball).  Threw a great pass to Jones down the sideline.

Graham Harrell (D+)
Statiscally, it didn't look good, but he had a fair number of drops.  He was pretty decisive on his throws, but he lacked zip on a couple of short check-downs that allowed the coverage to get there and make a tackle for little gain.  The fumble was not his fault and the interception looked to be his fault.  Even if the WR ran the wrong route, the other route wasn't open either as there were two defenders playing outside and inside on the WR (I believe it was Ross).  The ball came out late and probably shouldn't have been thrown.

BJ Coleman (F)
Late on virtually every read I saw.  Missed a wide open Gillette on the two-minute drill and instead opted to try to force it into cloud coverage on the right instead of throwing to an open Gillette playing against off-zone on the left.  Starting a two-minute drill with a 2 yard over the middle completion is not effective either.

Vince Young (D+)
Vince Young had the unenviable position of being a QB without knowing much of the playbook or reads.  It looked like he knew about a dozen different pass plays and the Packers played him in 3rd in the game because they knew he couldn't run the 2 minute offense.  He made some decent reads and when his first read wasn't open he tucked the ball down and took off.  The WRs didn't do him any favors with dropped balls though.  I felt his throws were mostly accurate, but it's tough because it was obvious the Packers gave him a very small amount of plays to work with.  His feet need a lot of work.

RB
James Starks (B)
Solidified himself on the roster.  Ran decisively and made good decisions when doing so.  The goal line carry was a problem, but those carries are not his forte (he runs too high).

Alex Green (F)
Everyone is trumping up Green like he has that burst back that they saw out of Hawaii, but I still don't see it.  He makes poor reads with the football in his hands and either waits too long for his blocks or not long enough.  At this point, I'd be surprised if he makes the roster.

TE
DJ Williams (D)
Williams made one great catch and then dropped two other routine catches.  He did not block particularly well either and was pretty quiet.

Jermichael Finley (C-)
This would have been an A had he hung on to the pass in the end zone that was broken up.  It was catchable.  He did block better than normal and he also ran good routes.  Just wish he would have come down with the one that counted.

Mathew Mulligan (C-)
He is what the Packers thought he was.  He's like an extra lineman out there.  He's 265 lb and quick enough to get to the second level immediately on run plays.  I like him for that, but it remains to be seen if the Packers will get something out of him as a receiver.  They need to in order for him to warrant any playing time outside of goal line packages.

WR
TyroneWalker (B)
Walker put a lot of pressure on the Packers with a good night receiving.  The jury is still out if he can play and get open on the outside.  He makes a living in the slot and with his height, that might be the only place he can play at this level.  He catches everything and runs excellent routes, snapping them off where he should and creating space for him to catch the ball.  He seems very aware on the field and looks like he knows the position very well already.  Look for him to at least make the practice squad depending on what happens with the two 7th round draft choices ever getting activated.

OL
David Bakhtiari (B)
He held his own and blocked well.  I thought on running plays he did a good job shielding his man from making the tackle (his guy only assisted on a single tackle all night), and he got to the second level well too.  He is nimble out there and looks strong enough to play.  We will see at some point once teams start running stunts and bull rushes or bring combination/overload pressure to his side.  We might not see that much this preseason though, but expect a lot of it in the regular season.  The thing I noticed the most is that I never saw him off his feet the entire time.

Marshall Newhouse (D)
Newhouse looked much improved on the run, especially on the right side, but he failed to get a proper kickout and get his hands on the rusher in a play that resulted in a fumble that took less than two seconds to happen to Harrell.  That will get your QB killed.  You need to get a piece of him and hold him in that case if you don't.

Don Barclay (C-)
He moved around a lot.  From the tackle position, he seemed responsible for two bad runs.  Still he mostly held his own and didn't get his QB killed.

Greg VanRoten (C+)
He moved around the three interior positions and really solidified himself as the top inside back up.  Had one marginal snap.

Lane Taylor
No grade as I didn't watch him much, but I did see him do a really good job on a running play once from the guard position, so there's that I guess.

DL
Johnny Jolly (A-)
Jolly looked excellent.  He got good push, held his point when he needed to hold outside leverage on run plays, and battled well with his hands.  He got a pressure on a bull rush, and was pretty much never off his feet (which is amazing considering where he plays).  I really liked what I saw from Jolly and believe he'll be a contributor this year.  I think he makes the team for sure.

Alex Daniels (D-)
He got some pressure from the right side, but when he was at LDE, he got sucked in over and over (flashbacks to the 49ers playoff game), was off his feet regularly, and didn't hold the point.  This was a bad game for a guy that is very tough to block one-on-one.  I just don't think he is the right guy in a 3-4 alignment.  He's a Kevin Williams type of a guy that can shoot gaps and there is no place for that with his lack of size in a 3-4.  I like the guy, but outside of playing in a sub situation, he's not doing it for me.  They ran at him repeatedly.  When comparing his play to Jolly snap to snap, Jolly completely dominated the performance.

Datone Jones
No grade, he barely played after tweaking his ankle early.  We'll see what the prognosis is for him in a couple of days.  Ankles are very important for his position.

LB
No individual ratings here other than to say that the entire unit needs to wrap up better.  They let DREW STANTON break tackles on them.  That is a symptom from the 49ers playoff loss.  Wrap up and hold on.  When they blitz, their bodies seem rarely in control (outside of Mathews) and that leads to some pretty awkward-looking missed tackles.

CB
Davon House (F)
He had a terrible game.  His strength has always been in zone press coverage, and he played an awful lot of off-man in the game.  Still, WRs regularly got behind him or in front of him or to the side of him.  He allowed completion after completion.  He was not physical either.  The shoulder may still bother him or he just isn't that good.  The key is that he would probably be just fine as the Packers dime defender (with Hayward, Shields, and Williams the other three).  This way he can play to his strengths much better.

Micah Hyde (C)
He gave up some plays but he was physical and showed why he was the Big Ten CB of the year last year at Iowa.  I thought he showed some quickness but had poor form on the fade TD that he gave up.  That is correctable in film though.  He could steal House or Bush's position for sure.  If the Packers like what they saw, expect to see Bush get more 1st and 2nd team reps in the next game to see if he can play as well as House (which opens the door for Hyde)

James Nixon
No grade as I didn't see much of him, but what I saw showed he wasn't very solid in coverage

Loyce Means
Same as Nixon.  They were garbage time minutes, so it was hard to evaluate.

S
Again no ratings here as I focused on the DL and CB with this game, but they certainly didn't stand out.  On the early big completion for a TD off of House, it looked like House was playing as if he expected safety help and didn't get any (or he was just beat, I couldn't tell - in any regard that play was a good pass, but you expect good QBs to complete those passes, one reason why the Packers get lit up by good QB play).

Punter (D-)
Masthay mishit two kicks and only managed to pin the Cardinals around the 10 yard line on his punts inside the 20.  He needed at least one booming kick and didn't have any.  I'm going to hold my breath and hope that he corrects this by next week.

Kicker (INC)
We got shut out so they kicked off one time (Crosby) and he kicked it through the endzone.  Can't do much to advance the kicker battle here other than to say that the Cardinals appear to be in no better situation than the Packers.   both of their kickers struggled mightily.

Why Vince Young has an uphill battle to make the roster

On Sunday reports began trickling in (thanks to Wes Hodkiewicz for breaking the story) that Vince Young is going to have a tryout with the Green Bay Packers on Monday.  That tryout came and went and the Packers signed Vince Young reportedly for the veteran's minimum.  How the mighty had fallen for the once 3rd overall pick in the draft (the Packers selected 5th in the round and had he fallen there, Andrew Brandt reported that there might have been some push to pick him - Ted Thompson has always been intrigued with Young's talent).

First, let's lay out why Thompson and McCarthy brought in the 30 year old quarterback who's been out of football since 2011:
1.  Defending the Read-Option.
Vince Young can and will run well.  He is a large (6'5") imposing quarterback cut from the same cloth as Kaepernick in San Francisco.  Unlike many of the younger camp-arm options to practice the read-option against, Young possesses an NFL arm that can make the throws anywhere on the field.  Of course, he may not always know where the ball is going (accuracy has always been an issue for him) and his ability to read defenses has never been a particular strong point, but that is probably a wash with other available QBs.

2.  Thompson/McCarthy have always been intrigued by an athletic quarterback
McCarthy has always thought highly of Vince Young and even Tim Tebow and this was an opportunity to bring in a guy that normally you wouldn't be able to bring in.  Add to that the Green Bay cut their other camp arm due to an injury before camp started, and he's a little bit of a fit.  McCarthy said he wanted 4 arms in camp.  Now he has that.

3.  The Play of Coleman/Harrell
Harrell has been up and down in camp.  He was ok in the scrimmage, but I'm sensing that on tape he made too many check-downs and did not make the proper read one too many times for the Packers.  Coleman is a gunslinger who has a long way to go to ever figure out an NFL defense.  Both quarterbacks have seemed slow to read and react to what the defense is bringing.  Vince Young will give some competition for them in that position.

So why will it be so hard for him to make the roster?
1.  It's always about the money
First, it's finances.  Vince Young is a vested veteran (meaning has more than 4 accrued NFL seasons).  Quote below courtesy of NBC Sports - Greg Rosenthal

If a so-called “vested veteran” is on a team at the start of the season and thereafter is released, he has the right to collect the balance of his base salary for the season — even if he later signs with another team. 

Each player may do this only once in his career.

For vested veterans signed after the season starts, the available termination pay drops dramatically.  Each player is entitled to the balance of the first 25 percent of his base salary or one week’s pay based on the minimum salary for players with 10 or more years of service, whichever is greater.

 If the Packers keep Young on the roster on final cut-down, they'll likely owe him the entire salary regardless of whether or not he is on the team.  They cannot sign him until after week 1 to avoid the payout.

2.  The complexity of the offense
Had the Packers actually thought they needed the competition, they would have signed Young (perhaps they tried) earlier so he could learn the offense during offseason OTAs and minicamp.  But they didn't.  Now, he has to get up to speed all in one training camp.  This offense is completely different to anything Young played under previously.  It stresses accurate on-time throws and patience and footwork when the read isn't open yet.  Young can do the latter quite well, but he has always struggled with throwing on time and accuracy.

3.  Lack of opportunity
Though Rodgers won't play much in the preseason, Harrell and Coleman likely will.  Young, having already established that he won't have a full idea of the offense (playing with others who will be looking for him to know the offense better than him as they'll be mostly rookies and young players), will not receive meaningful snaps in the preseason until week 3 (where Rodgers will take much of the available playing time from him) or week 4 (where competition is noticeably less than in week 2 and 3 of preseason).

My opinion:
I hope he makes it.  If he does, it likely means that he's found it again and has something that he can contribute to the Packers.  And if he's cut, then it might just mean that the backups aren't quite as bad as previously thought as well.

Will the Packers reach out to Donald Driver?

Going into this past off season, the Packers had a lot of roster turnover about to start.  Jennings was unlikely to sign and Driver was likely to retire... or be shown the door.  Jennings left to the rivals across the river, and not without a few parting shots, and Driver took the high road and hung up the cleats.

The Packers then proceeded to draft two receivers in the later rounds to compete with the likes of Ross and Boykin for the final two spots on the roster.  Returning were Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and Randall Cobb.  And things were looking up.

And then the wheels came off.

Both rookie wideouts have yet to finish a practice and remain out indefinitely, Jordy Nelson just had knee surgery (something that I believe had been on the table since December based on my inside source) and won't be available the rest of camp, and Randall Cobb dropped out today with an apparent biceps injury.  Add to that the inconsistent play of Ross in the scrimmage and the quiet camp Boykin has had, and you've got  a serious problem.

This begs the question, will the Packers reach out to Donald Driver?  He swallowed his pride last year and accepted the diminished role.  Would he be willing to do the same?  In Green Bay, receiver is one of the most difficult positions to play in the offense.  All receivers are expected to know all of the positions; they do this because the quarterback could flip the play and adjust the routes at any time based upon what he sees in coverage.  It is imperative that the receivers and quarterback are schematically on the same page.  Donald Driver is perhaps the only available player that could achieve that level of understanding before the season began.  He could be ready right now.  Always a workout warrior, Driver is bound to be in shape and ready to go.

The second question is will he?

Make no bones about it, the Packers are getting desperate just to have enough bodies to run drills.  Driver would bring veteran leadership to the position, is well respected by his former teammates, has never made waves in the locker room, and still showed enough life last year that he could contribute.  But, will he be willing to go through the pounding of an NFL season one more time only to potentially be thrown to the scrap-heap once the Packers get healthy?  That is a question for which we may soon find an answer.

2013 Training Camp Battles - Offense

The new season is about to kick off, and that means it is time to analyze the upcoming season and where the new and old pieces fit onto the Packers team.  I'll rank the competition in order of importance for the team on a star system (1 star = not important, 5 stars= imperative to the team's success), and I'll do it by position.

Quarterback - Graham Harrell/BJ Coleman/Matt Brown (2 stars)
Physically, the Packers have 4 very similar guys on the roster, all (including Rodgers) between 6'2" and 6'3" and between 215-230 lb.  The backup position has as many, if not more, question marks than it has since 1992 (the year Favre was traded for).  My bet here is that the job is still Harrell's to lose, and I also expect that he'll be surprisingly better than expected (though most Packers fans expect so little).  A friend of mine who covers the Packers (Gerrard Diaz) has said of the three backup possibilities, Harrell had the most zip and best footwork in minicamp.  The Packers will likely only carry 2 active quarterbacks and have a third on the practice squad yet again this season.  The fact is that if anyone other than Rodgers is taking snaps for the Packers in meaningful games this year, the season is likely lost.

Bottom Line:  Harrell wins and Coleman/Brown battle for a practice squad spot.  

Running Back - Franklin/Green/Harris/Lacy/Pease/Starks (5 stars)
The Packers need to run the ball better.  They probably need to run the ball more as well, but McCarthy will tell you that he won't run it more unless they run it better.  The draft attempted to address those concerns.  This battle will be one of the fiercest in camp, and I fully expect it to go 4-5 games into the season before a clear-cut starter is found.  This is not what Packers fans are going to want to hear though.  This position is extremely hard to evaluate because blocking, assignments, and opportunity all come into play.  Green is probably the most assignment-sure of the group.  It's why he started for so long last year even with his less than pedestrian yards per carry.  Franklin, if as advertised, will probably be the second most assignment-sure guy in the group.  He's more athletic than Green, but if the comparison to Warrick Dunn is any indication, don't expect an all-pro.  Still, if he's as consistent as Dunn was, that would be enough for the Packers.  Lacy is the big school product.  He's the wild card that could be a stud or a dud.  All 31 other teams passed on him repeatedly thinking he was the latter.  His fall was very similar to Aaron Rodgers fall.  A lot of teams believed Rodgers was a product of a system in which many QBs had college success only to fail in the pros.  Alabama has a had a similar recent run.  Many scouts believe that their offensive line is so good that grandma in a wheel chair will get 1000 yards.  Pease is likely a camp body, but they seem to like him and he had a good minicamp.  Starks appears to have run out of chances.  Harris is a guy the fans really like, but unless he take the next step and really shows something, don't expect to see him much because of the politics of beating out multiple higher round draft picks.  That's too bad because I really like Harris.  The biggest problem is that  there are some in the organization that don't think his size and style will allow him to stay healthy over 16 games (inside source).

Bottom Line:  Franklin gets the most playing time early and if he falters it goes to a rotation with him and Lacy; if that proves ineffective, expect Harris to get another shot.  At least early, expect a running back by committee approach again this season.  Starks/Green/Pease battle it out for 1 spot.  Whoever shows the most and stays healthy wins.

Full Back - Kuhn/Amosa (1 star)
The fullback is barely a member of the team anymore.  Kuhn is expensive and if they want to get a few of these potential free agents locked up during the season, Kuhn may get jettisoned.  That will only happen if the tight end position or Amosa can take over effectively for them.  Kuhn is a fan-favorite and he's assignment-sure, but he is not a game-changer.  Lacy should be better for short-distance conversions (heck, Harris was better last year in short yardage over a much smaller sample-size).

Bottom Line:  I expect Kuhn to be back this year.  Amosa may have a shot for the practice squad but it's unlikely with the Packers already likely to keep 4 running backs.

Wide Receivers - Boykin/Ross/Johnson/Dorsey (3 stars)
The first three wide receivers are set:  Nelson, Jones, and Cobb.  However, Nelson and Cobb both had injuries last year and the Packers love to run the spread with 4 wide receivers and a TE or even 5 wide.  According to an inside source, Boykin is actually really good, something that Jennings commented on last week in Minnesota - he just needs the opportunity.  His 4.8 40-time really hurt him despite his production in a big time college program.  Last year when he was on the field, I never noticed him getting a lot of separation and when thrown to, he only managed a paltry 5 receptions for 27 yards.  He does seem to uncover at the last second and does well to catch in traffic.  Ross has shown value on special teams, but I have a strong suspicion that his late season muff was a bit of death knell for him.  Returning will be Cobb's position to give up yet again.  Johnson and Dorsey were both drafted in the late rounds and both have good size-speed numbers - which is really late to find those kinds of guys at that point in the draft.  Thanks to guys like Harvin, Cobb, and Desean Jackson, the league has gone smaller again at the position looking for an effective hybrid guy that can cause match up problems for the defense.  That left some of more traditional 4th and 5th round picks available at later rounds.

Bottom Line:  Too close to call.  I need to see Johnson and Dorsey play first.

Tight Ends - Mulligan/Bostick/Quarless/Taylor/Williams (2 stars)
After Finley, the position is pretty muddy, but that's the case for nearly every NFL team.  Some don't even have a decent starter like Finley.  Say what you will about Finley, but statistically he had a great season last year in every category except the most important for TEs:  touchdowns.  He draws a lot of coverage in the end zone though and I firmly believe if the Packers had any threat near the goal line running the ball, the options would open up immensely for Finley.  Instead, the linebackers bail to the pass at the snap and that prevents Finley from any opportunity, forcing Rodgers to complete the very difficult flag route in the corner.  Mulligan is the team's new version of Crabtree, noted as a good blocker and a guy that can do just enough everywhere else to stick.  I still think he's only a long shot to make it.  Williams showed a little bit of improvement last year, but I really expect (and hope) that Quarless can make a big jump and return.  Early reports are that he's finally 100% and showing a lot of burst in minicamp.  We'll see once the pads go on.  Quarless showed the ability to play H-back as well before he went down potentially making Kuhn expendable if that's the case.  Taylor is a needed special teams guy and only doesn't make the team if Mulligan beats him out for special teams.  Bostick is still a receiving TE project and has to show he can block and play special teams at this point to stick, barring some sort of injury elsewhere.

Bottom Line:  I see the Packers carrying 4 TEs this year and that would be Finley, Quarless, and Williams, and Taylor.

Offensive Tackle - Bakhtiari/Datko/Newhouse/Sherrod/Barclay (5 stars)
Bulaga has the left tackle spot locked up barring injury, but the right tackle spot is wide open.  Bakhtiari was the Packers 3rd pick (4th round) of the draft this year, so I wouldn't be surprised if he was given a shot.  Still, he's more of a project that, like many college linemen, needs to get stronger before he can start.  The Packers tend to red-shirt rookie offensive linemen anyway (partially doing so with Bulaga, working Sherrod in slowly his rookie year only to see him get hurt, etc).  Datko is a year stronger and a year away from his torn up shoulders.  Newhouse is the most likely RT starter on day 1, but Barclay showed a lot of moxie and was a good anchor (and better run blocker than expected) in limited time last year.  Sherrod is still hurt and if he can't recover to play this year, the Packers will likely cut ties with him at this point.  It's unfortunate if that's the case.  I really want to see the guy get back out there.

Bottom Line:  Barclay wins and Newhouse backs up both tackle positions on game day.  Bakhtiari gets trained in both tackle and guard and perhaps works his way into the 8th man on game day.  Sherrod is cut or put on the PuP/IR again.  Datko gets another year on the practice squad or is cut.

Offensive Guard and Center - (1 star)
The Packers are set with the durable Lang and Sitton returning as the two starters at guard.  One of the backups will likely come from the tackle position and Van Roten probably has an inside track on the other spot.  Van Roten should also back up at the center position behind Evan Dietrich-Smith.  JC Tretter should round out the group transitioning from guard to center.

Bottom Line:  This seems to be mostly a battle of the backups here.  I don't think any of the guys will give the starters much push.

Packers Roster Update

Two months ago I analyzed where the Packers were with the cap situation and free agency.  Now that the first few days of free agency is left, let's go back and reevaluate the roster with some updated information made public and with the losses incurred so far.

First off, the coaching staff has remained entirely intact, which I once again think will be a huge strength for the team again this year. 

The actual cap increased from 120.6 to 123 million dollars this year, verifying reports that the cap was to remain flat.  There is talk that the cap will once again remain flat for the 2014-2015 season as well (which is opposite from what I heard before - time will tell I suppose; I'm not privy to the formula used to calculate salary caps or floors). 

A few trends:
First off, a massive number of veteran players with unfriendly salaries were jettisoned this year and many remain without work.  The NFL, in the next collective bargaining agreement (CBA), should revisit this problem.  Basically these bad cap contracts are great in years 1-2 and then get increasingly worse as the contract progresses.  Players initially like them because there is a large up-front signing bonus but then the grumbling begins when they get let go and are deemed too old to perform.

Second, nearly every position, with one exception (QB - no one thought Joe Flacco would make more than Manning, Brees, Brady, or Rodgers at 20.1 million per year) is showing a reduction in salary.  Wes Welker played as a franchise tag of about 12 million last year and signed with the Broncos for 12 million over TWO years (6 million per year), a whopping 50% salary reduction.  Pretty crazy for a guy with nearly identical numbers to the year before.  Further he's missed 3 games in the last eight years, so for a guy with incredible numbers working over the middle, he also has incredible durability.  Pretty crazy if you ask me.  Still some teams overpaid - Miami, Cleveland, Seattle, Minnesota, to get players to choose their team over another for whatever reason. 

Postion: (players on the roster)

QB: (3)
Notes:  Rodgers is set to be a free agent after the 2015 season.  He is greatly underpaid for his position and the Packers will likely look to double his salary at some point in the future.

 
RB:   (5)
Notes:  No clear starter and the Packers, sniffing around Steven Jackson are clearly still in the market for a proven commodity.  They won't break the bank though because they run the ball about as little as any team in the NFL.


WR: (3)
Notes:  This number is really 5 as they have exclusive rights to Jeremy Ross and Jarrett Boykin.  The loss of Jennings will likely be felt if they suffer any injuries here.  Driver's impact will be felt much less.  The biggest reason Jennings hurts as a loss is because he joined the Vikings; when a team in the division gets one of your key players, it's a two point swing instead of one.


TE: (4)
Notes:  People in the blogosphere wanted Finley to be traded/released/forced to take a paycut.  This after he posted 61 receptions for over 600 yards.  Certainly he could have scored more (2 TDs) and his drops were greatly reduced from last season.  The loss of Crabtree to the Buccaneers is not very important as the Packers expect Quarless to be back to full strength and he will take over for Crabtree's role.  Crabtree's loss will most likely be felt in twitter more than on the playing field.


OL: (8)
Notes:  Evan Dietrich-Smith was tendered a low tender (right to match).  So far there has been no interest from any team on any restricted free agent.  We'll see as the free agency period progresses. 


DL: (7)
Notes:  FOUR of the seven are free agents after this next season.  A lot of decisions need to be made here.


LB: (9)
Notes:  Walden left to the Colts via free agency and Francois re-signed likely for around $1 million for a single year.  AJ Hawk took a paycut.  Mathews is a free agent after this next season.  Bishop and Smith are both coming off season ending injuries

DB: (8)
Notes:  Burnett is a free agent after this season.  Woodson was released and Shields was tendered with a second round restricted free agency tender.  Chances are slim with teams' cap situations that they will make a run at shields and give up a second rounder at the same time. 

K/P/LS: (4)
Notes:  Packers signed some street free agent kicker to "compete" with Crosby in camp.  I'm guessing it's more along the lines of keeping Crosby's leg a little more fresh.  Fatigue can lead to bad mechanics, and we all saw what bad mechanics do to Crosby.

 Cap Space currently:  Around 20 million

Around the Division:
Relatively speaking the Packers have lost less than their division rivals.  Detroit has seemingly blown up their defense and signed Reggie Bush on offense.  The Bears have finally agreed that they are too old on defense and jettisoned Brian Urlacher, while once again providing no linemen to protect Cutler.  Minnesota has fared slightly better losing Winfield, Brinkley, and Harvin but re-signed Loadholt and went out and got Jennings.  They still have some serious holes to fill on that defense and at wide receiver though.

Packers Draft Talk

The experts all say the biggest jump for young players is between year 1 and 2 and the second biggest jump (considered late bloomers) is between year 2 and 3.  Let's take a look at the Packers last two drafts and see where the team stands before this April's draft. 

2011
1st round Derek Sherrod LT
His overall grade is still incomplete.  He flashed a few things just prior to breaking his leg but then showed that he couldn't even run without limping in practice before shutting it down for good.  Clearly he wanted to show the coaches he could go because they gave him a chance for choosing not to activate him from the Physically unable to Play (PuP) list.  What the Packers think of Sherrod's health will show here in April's draft.  If they draft a tackle early, don't expect Sherrod to ever suit up for the Packers (or any team) again.  Even if he does heal up, if the Packers move Bulaga over to LT this off-season (as many expect), Sherrod basically becomes depth for the team there).

2nd round Randall Cobb WR
A fantastic find who can do just about everything on offense.  He'll be the slot guy in the Packers 3-1-1 base offensive attack.  People fail to realize the benefit that Finley plays for him by clearing out the linebackers and making it less likely for Cobb to get killed over the middle.  Because of Cobb, don't expect the Packers to draft a WR on the first day, but stranger things have happened.

3rd round Alex Green RB
He was a healthy scratch in the playoffs and late in the season.  Rumors abounded that his knee was still bothering him and he had never regained his explosiveness seen prior to the injury in 2011.  The Packers under Ted Thompson have been great at getting running backs off the trash heap (Grant and now Harris) and making them servicable, but they have been terrible at drafting them (Brandon Jackson, Alex Green).  Green averaged just 3.4 yards a carry last year and looked lost in the zone running scheme.  With his injury though, he may make a bigger impact in year 3.

4th round Davon House CB
Another injury issue for House (one in each of the last two years) and the jury will be out on whether he can stay healthy or not for another year.  He had shoulder surgery just last week and will hopefully be good to go for training camp.  However, that means he'll lose this next season of Organized Team Activities (OTAs) and mini-camps.  That's too bad because he flashed really nice ability and is a great size matchup on the outside.  He does a nice job of using the sideline as a defender and guarding the outside routes but he broke down in coverage in the slot area and had a hard time in press (his strength) with his shoulder injury.  Prior to the injury (injured on special teams) he was a willing tackler.

5th round DJ Williams TE
He's been OK at most things.  He's been an above average special team player and and average blocker.  He rounds too many routes and has a hard time separating as a result.  He's a natural pass catcher and can play H-back when Rodgers is in the shotgun effectively.  When I see him, I see a speedier version of Donald Lee (but not as effective as an in-line blocker).  He can give you some production, but nothing special.

6th round Caleb Schlauderaff OG
No longer on the team.  Traded to Jets for a conditional draft choice after training camp his rookie year.

6th round DJ Smith ILB
He was a productive tackling machine filling in for Desmond Bishop until he also tore his knee up and ended up on IR.  He should be ready for training camp but will likely miss all of the OTAs and mini-camps.  He was a liability in coverage, so even if he comes back at full strength, the Packers may still need an inside linebacker with coverage skills to play in the nickel (or ideally all three downs).

6th round Ricky Elmore DE
No longer on the team.  He's under contract with the Washington Redskins

7th round Ryan Taylor TE
He's been a nice special teams player that has no problem mucking it up with the big boys.  He will never back down and if there's a frackas, expect to see Taylor in the middle of it.  He's more old school hockey enforcer than TE though.  He does not separate, is barely average blocking, and doesn't run good routes.  The team will continue to need special teams guys like him though, so expect to see him remain on the team.

7th round Lawrence Guy DT
He is no longer on the team and is playing for the Colts now.

Undrafted Free Agents
Bradon Saine RB - IR Knee - don't expect any contribution from him
Jamari Lattimore LB - Speicial Teamer nothing special

2012
1st round Nick Perry OLB
Ended up on IR with a wrist injury that required surgery.  He should be back in time for OTAs and minicamps and he needs every rep he can get.  He's a physical monster, but he's also a project, and that may not be good for the Packers.  Hopefully he can bounce back and put together some consistency with the flashes he showed this past year.  If the Packers bring back Walden, expect them to compete for the starting position.  If they don't bring Walden back, they will likely bring in someone young to compete either through the draft or free agency.

2nd round Jerel Worth DT/DE
He was showing some flashes of quickness, especially as a nickel pass rusher inside and opposite Mike Neal.  Then he blew out his knee and had to wait nearly a month before they could operate on it.  He will be challenged to play at all in 2013 and will definitely be on the PuP list to start the season.

2nd round Casey Hayward CB
He was the bright spot of the 2012 draft class for the Packers.  He helped create a lot of turnovers.  Most people I talk to would like him to be the heir-apparent for Charles Woodson in the slot.  His best plays, however, came when he was playing on the outside, matched up in man coverage.  With an offseason of OTAs and mini-camps though, he could really develop into a strong force in the slot.  He even showed some pass rush ability from the outside as well.

4th round Mike Daniels DT/DE
He's short but fiesty and productive.  He doesn't really fit the mold of a 3-4 DE and definitely not a nose.  The Packers used him in a rotation and against the right personnel, he was productive. Still, he's not a long-armed large man that the 3-4 defense needs on the weakside of the blitz (typically opposite Mathews) to hold the point or eat up blocks.  Expect the Packers to draft someone if they can.

4th round Jerron McMillian S
He has decent range but took some bad angles and seemed way too tentative in 2012.  However, with a season of minicamps and OTAs, he could make some decent strides.  The Packers desperately need something in the saftey position and still miss Nick Collins back there.  If the Packers draft a safety early in the draft, expect a fierce competition to open camp.

5th round Terrell Manning ILB
He was pretty much never an option at ILB and basically took up roster space as an inactive for most of the year.  He was a slow-footed runner who is more of a run-stopping plugger.  He only played 4-3 in college.  With a year of OTAs and minicamp, he might be available to contribute but he's hardly the answer the Packers need at ILB.

5th round Andrew Datko RT
He is still an intriguing prospect.  With a year on the practice squad strengthening his oft-injured shoulders, can he develop and contribute?  The Packers promoted Don Barclay over him when Bulaga went down, so clearly he wasn't ready this year.  Perhaps with a solid off-season he can be ready to contribute into the depth at tackle.

7th round BJ Coleman QB
Strong armed with barely an ounce of intellect, this guy mostly rubbed me the wrong way.  He strikes me as the QB version of all the bad things about Finley, but mostly he's a guy that'll hold a clipboard.  He needs to press for the 2nd string spot this year, but if he doesn't, he may still find a spot on the practice squad because McCarthy always needs a QB project.

Undrafted Free Agents (including mid-season acquisitions that qualify as well)
Greg Van Roten OG - Came in as the 6th lineman after Evan Dietrich-Smith became the starter at center.  Definitely a guard.  He's pretty much an unknown and considering I wasn't able to watch any practices  this year, I can't really comment on his ability.

Donald Barclay RT - Definitely a RT and not a LT, he did a pretty good job as an undrafted guy when Bulaga got hurt.  Has a tendency to hold when beaten by a speed move.  At the minimum, he can provide some depth at tackle.  If Bulaga moves to LT this offseason, then Newhouse and Barclay compete for the starting position at RT.

Sean Richardson S - Played a little bit of special teams and was beaten badly in his only action of the season.  He ended the season on IR for his back.

Dezmon Moses OLB - Played well at times and was decisive (even if he chose wrong) most of the time.  He can really benefit from an off-season of OTAs and minicamp.  He needs to find the ball carrier better and I'm not entirely sure if that can be taught.  Still, he can really fly around and can be disruptive if not accounted for - and that's saying a lot for an undrafted guy.

Jarrett Boykin WR - He's not a burner (but probably plays faster than his 4.7 40 time he ran at the combine), but he's a natural pass catcher and already a solid route runner.  He will compete for the Packers 5th WR spot.

Jeremy Ross WR - He's got return talent and seems to play taller than 5'11" too.  He will compete for the Packers 4th or 5th WR spot.  He's not a starter though, so the Packers may want to draft a guy to fill that 4th spot that can develop into a starter once Jones/Nelson/Cobb leave.

DuJuan Harris RB - He's projected as the starter at this point.  He a decisive, downhill runner that gets lost when the big bodies get moving.  The jury is out whether or not he can hold up for an entire year with his size though.  Still, a great find that can definitely contribute next year and will greatly improve from minicamps and OTAs as he actually will have time to learn the offense.

2013 Packers Draft Needs
Because the Packers had such a dearth of injuries in their last two draft classes, it will be a challenge for Thompson to find the right pieces and not waste a pick.  Say, for instance, that they go tackle early and then Bulaga and Sherrod are 100%, they will have a log-jam at the tackle position with 5 guys (including the new draft choice) that could be solid starters.  The Packers won 12 games with the line they had (including its 51 sacks), so I'm more apt to believe that they will roll with what they have at that position and make some tweaks inside the team to best align and squeeze talent out of that group.  To do that, I'd expect Bulaga to move to the left and let Barclay and Newhouse battle for the RT position.  Then if Sherrod is healthy, he can battle with them at RT as well with the losers backing up the two tackle positions. 

Draft Needs (# of players needed):
WR (1)
C/G (1-2)
RB (1)
DL (1)
ILB (1)
OLB (1)
S (1)
QB (1)

WR
They need a #4 guy.  This guy can be developmental and the draft seems a bit light on WR talent so they may ignore this position all together for the year.  They could use a big body guy if possible.

C/G
Packers usually get a guy to play both positions here to allow them to only suit up 8 linemen. They need 2 here if they aren't going to roll with Evan Dietrich-Smith at center and draft a starting center. They would still need depth here.

RB
What they could really use here is a pounder that can get the short yards.  To get the right back though it would require a 1st or 2nd round draft choice.  The Packers are 28-7 the last two seasons with a bunch of retreads and no-names at running back; I still think they have bigger fish to fry and will try to roll with Harris and company for the year.  They could try to draft someone in the later rounds but that only seems to work well for Shanahan in the zone blocking scheme.

DL
With Worthy out for the year (likely) and Pickett, Raji, Neal, and CJ Wilson all free agents after the season, this is the position of absolute need for the Packers.  They will likely draft 2 guys here and if there's a big and tall guy available early, they'll jump on him and draft him right away.

ILB
They have a need here due to injuries and lackluster play.  They need an everydown inside linebacker that can go sideline to sideline.  They won't find one outside of round 2 however, so they would have to draft early to find that guy.  Considering AJ Hawk's contract means he'll be here for another 2 years for sure, they are not likely to draft here (even if they should).

OLB
They may not draft here if they resign Walden and run with Walden, Mathews, Perry, and Moses this next year, but they can never have too many athletic linebackers, so expect them to draft one in the later rounds for Greene to groom.

Safety
They need either depth here (if they are sold that McMillian and Burnett are the answer) or they need a bonafide starter that can make plays.  That guy might be available in the first or second round, but after that, it's all just for depth.

QB
This is for depth only (obviously).  The Packers may find something and may not, but they'll probably have at least 4 QBs on the roster for training camp, and if the guy can actually throw it, it'll certainly help the defense prep for offenses in scout team practice.

If I were GM and things fell exactly the way I wanted
The draft is obviously a lottery and you never quite know what's going to be available when you pick.  The Packers will be afforded the opportunity to draft the best player available in most cases and there should be some options available.  Here's what I'd do each round (note they'll get 1-2 compensatory picks as well and those are just guesses as to what they'll get rewarded).

1 - DT/DE
2 - ILB
3 - RB
4 - C/G
5 - WR
Compensatory - DL
6 - QB
7 - OLB
Compensatory - S

The Packers Salary Cap Situation

So the burning question is who will be in and who will be out in Green Bay for the 2013-2014 season. While most pundits are focusing on possible coaching changing, a few are focusing on the forgone conclusion that the Packers will be without the services of numerous veteran players who will part via free agency or through contract termination. Before jumping to those conclusions, let's educate everyone on the current salary cap situation. Special thanks to spotrac.com for their salary statistics.

The salary cap for 2013 is going to remain flat. That means the Packers can expect to field another season of a 120.6 million dollar cap.

Here are the figures for their roster: *Denotes Projected Starter

Name                           Salary                          Year of Free Agency

                                                                        UFA = Unrestricted Free Agent

                                                                        RFA = Restricted Free Agent

QB:
Aaron Rodgers*            10.250 million             (2015 - UFA)
Graham Harrell           630k                            (2014 - RFA)

 
RB: 
John Kuhn                   2.6 million                   (2014 - UFA)
Alex Green                  700k                            (2015 - UFA)
James Starks                600k                            (2014 - UFA)
Brandon Saine            555k                            (2014 - RFA)
DuJuan Harris*             465k                            (2015 - UFA)


WR:
Jordy Nelson*               4.025 million               (2015 - UFA)
James Jones*                 3.75 million                 (2014 - UFA)
Randall Cobb*              875k                            (2015 - UFA)


TE:
Jermichael Finley*        8.75 million                 (2014 - UFA)
Andrew Quarless        676k                            (2014 - UFA)
DJ Williams                 604k                            (2015 - UFA)
Ryan Taylor                570k                            (2015 - UFA)


OL:
Josh Sitton*                  5.25 million                 (2017 - UFA)
Jeff Saturday             3.750 million                (2014 - UFA) No Penalty if released
TJ Lang*                       3.1 million                   (2017 - UFA)
Bryan Bulaga*              2.125 million               (2015 - UFA)
Derek Sherrod             1.8 million                   (2015 - UFA)
Marshall Newhouse*    577k                            (2014 - UFA)
Greg Van Roten          480k                            (2015 - RFA)
Don Barclay                480k                            (2015 - RFA)


DL:
Ryan Pickett*               6.7 million                   (2014 - UFA)
BJ Raji*                        6.195 million               (2014 - UFA)
Mike Neal                   1.042 million               (2014 - UFA)
Jerel Worthy                901k                            (2016 - UFA)
CJ Wilson*                    588k                            (2014 - UFA)
Mike Daniels               555k                            (2016 - UFA)
Jordan Miller               480k                            (2015 - RFA)


LB:
AJ Hawk*                     7.05 million                 (2016 - UFA)
Desmond Bishop*        4.964 million               (2015 - UFA)
Clay Mathews*             2.6725 million             (2014 - UFA)
Nick Perry*                   1.704 million               (2016 - RFA)
Brad Jones                  630k                            (2013 - UFA)
DJ Smith                     580k                            (2015 - UFA)
Jamari Lattimore         557k                            (2014 - RFA)
Terrell Manning           523k                            (2016 - UFA)
Dezman Moses            481k                            (2015 - RFA)

DB:
Charles Woodson*        10 million                    (2015 - UFA)
Tramon Williams*         7.4 million                   (2015 - UFA)
Jarrett Bush                 1.8 million                   (2015 - UFA)
Morgan Burnett*          850k                            (2014 - UFA)
Casey Hayward          752k                            (2016 - UFA)
Davon House              630k                            (2015 - UFA)
MD Jennings               555k                            (2014 - RFA)
Jerron McMillian        555k                            (2016 - UFA)

K/P/LS:
Mason Crosby*             3.15 million                 (2016 - UFA)
Tim Masthay*               1.005 million               (2017 - UFA)
Brett Goode*                821k                            (2016 - UFA)

 

Total Salary $115.7525 currently under contract

4.8475 million under the cap

8.5975 under the cap after Saturday is released

Restricted Free Agency Tenders (2012 but with a flat cap, these numbers should be about the same)
First Round 2.742 million
Second Round 1.927 million
Right of First Refusal/Original Round 1.26 million

2013 Unrestricted Free Agents:
Cedric Benson
Ryan Grant
Greg Jennings
Donald Driver
Evan Dietrich-Smith*
Eric Walden

2013 Restricted Free Agents:
Tom Crabtree
Robert Francois
Frank Zombo
Sam Shields*

2013 Exclusive Rights Free Agents: (will sign for the minimum)
Jeremy Ross (480k)
Jarrett Boykin (480k)


So what does this mean for the 2013-14 Green Bay Packers?  First off, changes are going to have to be made to the roster.  Assuming a draft salary pool of approximately 6 million dollars (estimating a hair high here), they've got about 3.5 million to work with on their roster (after Jeff Saturday is released). 

Resigning their own:

Cedric Benson - Unless he's willing to take a veteran's minimum contract and the Packers are interested, don't expect him back.  They were basically 12-4 without him.  I can't see them going back to him.

Ryan Grant - See Cedric Benson.  The fact is that he actually performed better than Benson did overall, but by the time Grant was on the team, the offensive line was also performing better

Greg Jennings - I'd love to see him back, but he's looking for $11 million a year.  Not going to happen in Green Bay, and if it does, the Packers would have to really cut someone important (see Charles Woodson).  They still are three deep at WR on the team without Jennings

Donald Driver - Green Bay hopes he retires, and even though they didn't give him the swan song he was hoping for, don't be surprised if they try to bring him back as a low-ranking coach.  Donald has indicated that he wants to play though, it just won't be for the Packers as they are committed to developing some younger talent.

Evan Dietrich-Smith - The Packers need to target him as their number one unrestricted free agent priority.  As the Jeff Saturday experiment failed, expect them to make a move as soon as possible to wrap Dietrich-Smith up for 2-3 years.  Money will be tight to do this though.

Eric Walden - Unless he's willing to play for the minimum, he won't be back.  He was putting together some pretty good tape over the last month of the season (minus the 2nd Vikings game), but the tape he put out there against San Francisco was embarrassing. 

Tom Crabtree  - Will probably receive a right of first refusal contract, especially with Quarless still not recovered.  That will cost the packers 1.26 million for him to get a chance to make the roster again.  Otherwise, they may let him walk in restricted and try to resign him for cheaper later.

Robert Francois - Unless he's an exclusive rights free agent (and I'm not entirely sure he isn't), I wouldn't expect him back.  He's a special teamer who can be replaced.  If he's back, it's for the minimum.

Frank Zombo - Due to injuries and an inability to even got on the field when healthy, he won't be back unless the team has exclusive rights for him still (I don't think they do on this one though).  He could be brought back as a minimum salary guy.

Sam Shields - He is priority number one in restricted free agency  He is going to cost them at least 1.9 million dollars for a second round tender and it could go higher at 2.742 million if they go with a first.  I would not be surprised if a team jumped on him at a second round tender and the Packers cannot hope to match.  He's young, a starter on a winning team, and had a very solid season.  In a predominantly passing league, the Packers need 4 corners to match up, and shields is clearly one of those guys.

Additional Notes:
Note as well that in 2014-15 season, the Packers have 12 unrestricted free agents (including Raji, Mathews, Jones, Finley, and Burnett) and 4 restricted free agents.  All decisions in 2013 need to keep 2014 in mind.  Paying Shields a long-term contract could jeopardize the Packers ability to sign Mathews, Raji, Jones, Finley, and/or Burnett).  Of course, giving Shields a restricted tender now makes it all the less likely he'll be back in 2014 as he'll be added to the unrestricted pile then.  Further, quarterbacks are the only position where contracts are often extended two years before they are due, meaning Rodgers would be added to that pile as well. 

Luckily for the Packers, however, the salary cap is projected to increase significantly in the 2014 season.  It would seem that the Packers may have planned for this all along, but it still doesn't mean they won't tighten their belt this year.